Poland’s Pivotal Presidential Election: Trzaskowski vs. Nawrocki in Tight Race

Warsaw, June 1, 2025 – Poland is gearing up for a historic presidential election, with current Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative challenger Marek Nawrocki locked in a neck-and-neck race, according to the latest polls.

Key Election Dynamics

• EU Relations at Stake:

  • Trzaskowski, representing the pro-European Civic Coalition, advocates for restoring Poland’s access to blocked EU funds.

  • Nawrocki, backed by nationalist factions, emphasizes "national sovereignty" and a more skeptical stance toward Brussels.

• Diverging Views on Ukraine:

  • Trzaskowski pledges continued military and political support for Kyiv.

  • Nawrocki calls for a "Poland-first" approach, signaling potential shifts in Warsaw’s Ukraine policy.

• Judicial Reform Debate:

  • The election could determine the fate of Poland’s controversial judicial reforms, which the EU has repeatedly criticized.

Election Timeline & Expectations

• The first round is scheduled for June 28, with a likely runoff in July.

• Voter turnout is expected to hit record levels amid high political polarization.

International Implications

• EU & NATO: Quietly favor Trzaskowski to maintain Poland’s pro-Western alignment.

• Russia: State media has amplified Nawrocki’s anti-EU rhetoric, signaling Moscow’s preference.

Why It Matters: The outcome will shape Poland’s role in Europe, its stance on Ukraine, and the future of democracy in the region.